Apple’s first foldable iPhone, widely rumored as the ‘iPhone Fold’ or ‘iPhone Ultra,’ may follow in the footsteps of the iPhone X, announced with fanfare but not immediately available in volume, as per industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
In a post on X recently, Kuo, a long-term Apple supply chain analyst at TF Securities, said production volume is not yet ramped up enough for a full launch this fall. He expects the foldable device to experience the same delayed-availability pattern seen with the 2017 flagship.
For the uninitiated, Apple unveiled the iPhone X at the company’s usual September event in 2017, but preorders didn’t open until late October, with sales starting only in early November. Everything sold out almost instantly.
Kuo’s latest production numbers suggest the same pattern for the foldable iPhone. The supply chain is targeting 7 to 8 million units for the second half of 2026, but only about 500,000 to 1 million of those are slated for Q3. In contrast, the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are expected to see roughly 20 million units in the same quarter.
New hardware remains the bottleneck. In 2017 it was the OLED display and Face ID that slowed everything down. This time around, it’s the folding screen and the hinge that have created months of engineering headaches.
While it’s worth considering that rumors were floating about in June regarding the company finally resolving the hinges for the Apple foldable, Kuo’s estimates now suggest that whatever fix Apple settled on came too late for Q3 production to be able to catch up.
Kuo is far more than just a typical rumor source, as well. His supply chain checks have been consistently reliable and accurate with regard to Apple hardware for years, giving his assessment significantly more weight than most circulating reports.
If you want a foldable iPhone in your hand this year, plan on hunting. If you want to just walk into a store and buy one, 2027 is the realistic target.
Sources: Apple, X (Formerly Twitter), Apple Insider, Medium